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cf9474b450850a1e0bc29eddb0291157 | Great. Yes, I guess, just going back to the last set of questions. So first off, it looks like your average price was around $8,200, and that was made up of the $4,200 of spot. And I think -- I don't know, I think you said $9,500 on contracts. So maybe you can just reiterate what you said on the LTAs as an average pric... | So let me begin by asking Quinn to validate the pricing and numbers that were in the release.
Sure. Thanks, Dave. Sure, Arun, just to reiterate, the LTA price we realized in the first quarter was $9,500. And the non-LTA price we realized in the first quarter was $4,200. And 26,000 tons were sold under LTA and 11,000 t... | intermediate | [
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7eae9942821edb16f6cf7b3c4b41337d | Great. And then maybe you can also just reiterate your priorities on cash use from here. Obviously, you've done some deleveraging. Is there any interest or potential for reinstating a larger dividend? Or would you opt for buybacks as you go through the year? | Yes. Thanks, Arun. Yes, as we noted on our last conference call and also in our remarks today, we will continue to focus and prioritize the majority of our cash flow this year for debt reduction. As I've mentioned before, absolutely, we monitor our capital allocation strategy very closely. We discuss with management ev... | direct | [
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6a47d6e201e97693bca59dc21b3d63bb | Thankyou for taking my question I just wanted to ask a little bit about the -- just the change of control provision you mentioned with Brookfield. I think you said below 30% and there are payments made by GrafTech to Brookfield. Is that correct? | No. That's -- you've got the first part of it correct. The change of control language kicks in when Brookfield moves below 30%. And there is an LTIP plan that covers a few of the employees or a number of the employees that were in place at the time that Brookfield purchased GrafTech as a retention mechanism. Those paym... | direct | [
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7a4c2c29114986cdf95130366d537026 | I'm sorry, those payments get made directly to -- I'm still confused. They are made to the GrafTech management? | Yes. Yes. They get paid to the members of GrafTech management that were in place at the time of the buyout back in 2015. | direct | [
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190c80a29a056e0491d4d6f5177e8933 | Okay. That's what I thought. And so then related to that question, with -- is there -- are there any other triggers or anything else that we should think about? Or do those payments just automatically happen right when it goes below that 30% threshold? | More or less, there's a slight, I think, a 30-day delay. But for all intents and purpose, it is immediate. Now we do reference this, David, to be -- in the spirit of full transparency, we also commented, and it was in Quinn's comments during the prepared remarks, there's also some restricted -- some stock and some opti... | direct | [
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2868b322db86b090f4a12052bfe7dbb9 | Okay. Understood. And then just the last part of this, are there any retention requirements? Or are those people that have received those payments free to take the money and leave on day one theoretically? | There are no retention requirements. The intent of those payments was to season through to this point. But I would share with you that GrafTech has a solid succession planning program and there is no worries about whatever people elect to do. | direct | [
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5390a6a4bbcf7e28f2ec27624e51cc05 | Okay thanks. And then in terms of -- not talking about this year, but more sort of structurally, I mean what do you think is a normalized sales volume for GrafTech? And just for context, back in 2018 or the beginning of 2019, you were selling about 45,000 tons a quarter. But subsequent to that, it turned out that custo... | Sure, Alex and Neil, thanks for your question and interest in our firm. So you're in a way asking me to try obviously to predict the future and to some extent provide guidance, which I won't provide direct guidance. But what I would point out to you is that during this same period, there's been growth of the electric a... | intermediate | [
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7189fed6b10f040609f05638cc4d9f68 | I hope so. And then just one other question. I don't know how much you can comment on this, but are you seeing any -- with the market coming back, are you seeing any pressure from electrodes coming out of China in any of your markets? Or is -- because there was a period of time where exports out of China were starting ... | Well, sure. I mean the Chinese were in the market before. And admittedly, a lot of that presence was in label electrodes. Though they have made some progress in the UHP space, the quality still is not, for the most part, as good as ours. But I think it's a natural evolution for them. So I wouldn't -- they are a factor ... | intermediate | [
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c3a6e6c2c83679df722ec14dcdeac117 | You mentioned your view that your Assisted volumes can improve their trajectory this year, maybe you could just add a little bit more color around your confidence around that specifically given you reiterated again your plans to not increase price this year? | Hey, Jeff, it's Jeff Jones. Thanks for the question. As Tony mentioned in his prepared remarks, we've been on a trajectory year-over-year of improving our performance in the Assisted business. As you may know, last year, we made a conscious decision about eliminating Free EZ which we knew would cost this client, but st... | direct | [
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98ef7da91bea86b8be85f6d2710ec1a0 | Expenses were a little bit higher than we were expecting this quarter, and it seems to be centered on a step up in other wages line item. So is there anything one time to call out there or somewhere else, and is there any change to how you're thinking about the expense page for the remainder of the year. | Yeah. Thanks, Jeff. This is Tony. Yeah, there was several items in other, I mean, a lot of the Wave expenses related to some of the variable cost, show up in other. We also have some legal expenses that occurred during the quarter that are showing up in other, there's a number of moving parts. But as I said in my openi... | direct | [
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dc61934aa2104c7bef08f08c28c5d691 | Was there anything on the other wages line item specifically though? | Yeah, I mean, we've got build wages which obviously picks up the vast majority of our field network in the US, as well as some of our international businesses. Wave wages that we picked up during the quarter would be showing up in other wages that would probably be a significant portion of that increase, as well as the... | direct | [
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f88873d8909fb8e0cfeec8408a9bfe01 | Do you think there are any variables in the upcoming tax here that maybe the market isn't considering that could impact returns positively or negatively? | Yeah. Ryan, this is Jeff Jones. Last year was obviously a unique year with the government shutdown, the delayed season which turned into extensions. When we look back over history of growth rate, that's why we see the industry this year kind of returning back to about 1%. There is nothing that we know of at this point ... | intermediate | [
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ff45923e53ed438e60227b7cf193d027 | I wanted to ask you a little bit about the marketing budget, especially as you have Wave now and maybe what the anticipation is, if you -- if you're going to maintain kind of marketing budget, where it is and just -- and take some and add it to Wave or you expect overall marketing budget to increase and increase both t... | Hey Kartik, let me pull the part a little bit. Overall, our marketing budget for the year is reflected in our guidance, and what we are absolutely focused on is spend effectiveness that you may remember last year, I talked a lot about the changes we were making in performance marketing, etc., we saw great results there... | intermediate | [
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ceb461b524a870a71d69389bb249e8ee | Maybe the growth in Wave customers and revenue? | Yeah. So at this stage, we're not really guiding on customers, but I will say that the top of the funnel remains very healthy for Wave. They grew revenue this quarter about 40%. As we said last quarter, for years now, they've been growing 40% plus on the revenue line, they did that again this quarter. It was a little s... | intermediate | [
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22f701157ca983935725f39d485eb9b5 | I just wanted to ask about some of the operational excellence that even though I know you reiterated margins for next year, but just curious, excluding that cost impact from Wave, the underlying margin trend and sort of where you're targeting and achieving any potential through operating efficiencies that could impact ... | Yeah, as I shared in my opening comments, all of the Wave operating loss will be offset with other cost reductions as well as revenue growth which will allow us to grow EBITDA dollars for the year. I also said that the revenue line will grow a little bit fast, and the EBITDA line, which will cause a slight contraction ... | intermediate | [
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038163309f231b15a4318247af3531c1 | Any sort of thoughts on the -- the sort of fixed cost base, whether it's real estate or any other cost otherwise, how you are sort of thinking about that? | Yeah, I mean, we try to make a lot of those decisions on a year-by-year basis. I mean, we've been focused on growing. Obviously, the last couple of years, we did a number of changes last year and resetting our baseline resetting margin levels, optimizing our footprint, resetting price, and now we're focused on how do w... | intermediate | [
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bddfac28cfe7910154479def6c37a7ee | Jeff, could we start on the technology roadmap. It's -- clearly you have one, I'd love to get a progress update. On the outside we don't really know the roadmap, you have that and so could you just kind of summarize where you are along the path, what's been accomplished, what's yet to go and is it trending financially,... | Yeah, hey Scott. Great question. And I'm sorry that that feels opaque to you. So the technology roadmap that we talked about a year or so ago has a lot of different dimension. I think at the top is what we refer to as the omni-channel tax engine or a tax platform, that's a major initiative to move from three engine to ... | intermediate | [
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4eea47a16c58500439b00083895dfab2 | It looked like legal expenses was increased, you guys discussed a little bit, but curious is that Free File Alliance focused or other, just whatever you can elaborate? And then my other question, it's a quickie is, will you be providing volume updates throughout the tax season? You have a large competitor in the tax ba... | Yeah. So we'll take them in the reverse order. On your second question, we absolutely believe that -- that we should be and will be as transparent as possible with you in our business, in our transformation, in our initiatives, and we have no plans to change how we provide updates to you throughout the season that will... | intermediate | [
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2edb24056e82f50223d68250e1ca8fc1 | Is it going to remain elevated or no on the legal front? | Yeah, I mean, obviously, when you see a quarter bump up, it's probably not going to go to zero on a year-over-year basis the following quarter, but we did contemplate that in our EBITDA margin outlook that I provided earlier in the call. | intermediate | [
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bf3abf1501c2676b5a0f2aaebf3545de | I wanted to dive deeper into the cost reductions that you're planning to make to help offset the Wave operating losses. Now that you're further along into the year, can you just elaborate a little bit more on where these savings are coming from and if you've identified additional savings you didn't have earlier in the ... | Yeah. Thanks, George. As I said, there is -- most of those are going to occur during the fourth quarter. You will see in our release that we released before the call that our EBITDA loss is up slightly for the first six months, but for the full year we still expect EBITDA dollars to improve on a year-over-year basis, d... | intermediate | [
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2e5b2ce5a6b823878e89a72b2f32b5a6 | I know you've talked about pricing for Assisted at length, but now again you're further into the year. What's the likelihood that you'll flex pricing as a lever or are you fully committed to sustaining flat pricing for this upcoming tax season? And then separately on DIY, it looks like pricing is coming lower, can you ... | Hey, George. We will tag team. On Assisted, we are fully committed to holding that flat for fiscal '20. When we reset pricing, we do not believe we need to reset pricing further. This is all about getting our pricing in line so clients can see and experience the value. We feel really good about how our clients judge th... | direct | [
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df65d10e1f58900a130feeb287fe4c1c | So that the pricing increase is going to be driven more by mix, is that correct? | That's right. I mean, it's dynamic. As you know, pricing changes throughout the season, whether it be first half or second half in byproduct, but we don't have any planned price reductions in DIY, and we believe that there is going to be positive mix led by online assist. | direct | [
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0c480409e0f5a4a783b3e06ad4bfcc1e | Maybe one to start, when you announced the CIT deal, you put up an illustrative $70 per share in 2022. I know it's only been three months or so since then. But I wonder if you could just kind of talk anything that's going better or worse than you expected relative to those original assumptions, and especially maybe in ... | We have not updated those pro formas and we're going to -- and we will be doing that here soon. We do acknowledge that the economic outlook in general has improved since we established our original marks and established those pro formas. We are also encouraged with CITs fourth quarter results. We did create our marks a... | intermediate | [
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75caec4cf2139df3226f310062dbdf34 | Probably the most common question I get on your stock is because you have a little bit of an unusual set up and I hesitate to call it, things that could be shareholder-friendly because ultimately a stock that goes up and outperforms over time is the ultimate shareholder-friendly set up, and you guys have certainly deli... | I think in terms of shareholder-broadening, we look forward to having a much broader shareholder base with our friends, with combining with our friends at CIT. If you're asking a question about, are we planning something that would change our share class structure A to B, we have no plans for that. But thank you for yo... | direct | [
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1ebdf427fe81853e6b82a1f718752ad9 | I guess, one other question I get a lot is on your owner-occupied CRE. I mean, certainly your ability to grow core loans right now is a pretty nice differentiator. I think, maybe it's not always as clear to people the differences in the owner-occupied CRE book you have and even sometimes I kind of scratch my head on so... | We have had nice growth this past year in that category and our focus is on small business, medical, professional activities and owner-occupied as compared to non-owner occupied, obviously, as that credit -- the business cash flow repays the credit. So it's supporting the housing of the business that, that business nee... | direct | [
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c04f37287c137c12f046549acd61faa3 | I guess maybe to follow on, I mean, is it -- if I think about that kind of stereotypical medical property that is the owner-occupied CRE or a piece of it, is it about growth in the market right now or is it about gaining market share or new geographies? I mean, where are you finding the incremental growth in that portf... | I think it's a little bit of both because we are seeing that growth both in our -- what we would consider our legacy footprint of North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and also in our other markets as well. So it's a combination of gaining new clients along with growth within our existing client base, where they co... | direct | [
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c15c1c36dc73c28d59c21fc05a22292a | I guess, on the one hand, earnings for both you and CIT are coming in pretty good, maybe that CET1 ratio -- the marks might improve, so maybe that CET1 ratio come higher, but you did reference the Tier 1 leverage being a little depressed right now by PPP, by cash on the balance sheet. As we think about post-deal close,... | With respect to both CET1 and leverage, we really don't see either as a limiting factor. We are comfortable operating within those ranges or within that level. It falls within our ranges. So we're comfortable operating there, and we do see both rebounding nicely as we start with the earnings stream of the combined comp... | intermediate | [
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1a0ad577e875fa8db09e56d2c0faeeae | Your non-interest bearing deposit, your domestic growth this year was pretty phenomenal on the order of 50% year-over-year. And I'm assuming PPP played a part in that, maybe some companies getting cash and not fully using it yet. I wonder if you kind of have any thoughts on the stickiness of those non-interest-bearing ... | I think you mentioned PPP growth. When we look at the PPP program, we initially had $3 billion in growth, resulting from the PPP program. However, when looking at by the end of the year, using sort of a watermark approach on that, those balances were down to about $1 billion. So of the $9 billion we grew for the year, ... | intermediate | [
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cf1d81b395e1d833ac757dc461546144 | Maybe you could just expand a little on one of the points that you raised about the liquidity. And, yeah, how do you see it actually working in terms of the deploying your excess liquidity into CITs book? Like what's the process? How long will it take? I assume that you'll have to, at some point, get rid of some of the... | I think the way we were thinking about it is, I think we've been very clear on sort of from a business perspective. We're not looking to make any changes there. We're excited about the opportunities from the direct bank and some of the broader client footprint that CIT brings to the table. However, obviously, when look... | intermediate | [
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42bff429fc76ff930f8018baf45c4c0e | Yeah. Thanks. Good morning. I wonder what you can say in terms of signals you're getting about the economy when you look at your insurance operations, also the ventures, you say construction is doing pretty well, and curious whether you're seeing any kind of signs of things may be slowing? | Yeah. Thanks, Mark. It is an incredible value to have the windows that we have both through what each individual underwriter would see and what we see through the various businesses that we're in across the economy. And what I'll tell you is it's hard and it's challenging. And every single business is dealing with labo... | intermediate | [
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32823e674b838ddc077d253e6043ac0a | Very good. I think when you look at the reinsurance segment, obviously, post-property is hardening up. Is that spilling over into other lines? And is that going to create opportunity within reinsurance or insurance in the insurance segment as well? | Hey, Mark, it's Jeremy. Maybe I'll start on that. I think you're right to point out, and property is certainly part of the story. I think marine and aviation lines because this year's events are also part of the story. So, we see it if we're on the table relative to our outworks programs, and we see where we're at the ... | direct | [
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1bd052bb35e5a2dd20e621e310881a7e | Didn't really think about your growth in insurance, the 21% in written this quarter. I hear your description of in pockets of price competition, you've been careful about inflation. You also say the pricing increases are moderating, but you're still seeing -- in looking at the written premium growth that you're seeing ... | I think the way to square it is, is your right, Mark, things are good and language in the way we speak, we're inherently conservative people. We always have been, we always will be. So, we never want to take things for granted. We never want to sugarcoat things, but things are pretty good. And Mark, maybe, it's Jeremy,... | direct | [
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59df1a68d88e6a3a36ad4bcd33d89bd5 | Yeah. Good morning. Let me start with an accounting question. The $53.4 million of reserve release that is related to CATCo, am I correct understanding that you guys were effectively just a pass-through for that? It passed through one line and then back out through the minority interest. Or was there any other plus or ... | Mark, it's Jeremy. Well, you make a great account. So yes, you're exactly right. It's really just geography. So that is a straight pass-through any -- we continue to wind down the reserves. We continue to execute computations where we can, where there are savings that passes through to the benefit of the original inves... | direct | [
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441f6908dcfa139fc807a3ea462546f1 | Right. OK. And my old accounting professor would be proud that I retained any of them. So anyway, the second question that I have and this may be probably for Jeremy and Richie. I mean you've talked about your increasing caution on the reserving and on the loss picks. Yet, we've got some pretty decent pricing still, an... | Yeah, Mark, I'll start and maybe Richie will jump in. I think that is a good way to think. And won't necessarily get into numbers or certainly a line by line of view. But overall, I think we feel that rate and underwriting actions are keeping just ahead of trend. And that expands to our acknowledgment that in an inflat... | direct | [
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5692c4e2366ca065c74464fce839f793 | I appreciate those comments. And I guess with that in mind, it kind of raises two maybe follow-up questions directly to that point. So, if you're kind of at conservative plus in terms of thinking about accident year picks and reserving, what are the signposts you're looking for that would move you back to just merely c... | Yeah. I think it's hard to say whether things -- accident market -- margins improve because we got a lot of unknown variables, right? We don't know what the rate increases are going to be next year, and we also don't know what the true rate of inflation is. I know you're going to hate this answer, but the true thing th... | intermediate | [
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5eabf8098a969283ff83e13ffa44cf6e | Yes. Good morning, everyone. First, congratulations on the reinsurance results. I have a number of questions for Tom. Tom, you've been holding on to about $2 billion of short-term investments for quite some time and another $3 billion of cash. And there's been no opportunity cost for doing that. But today, there is alt... | Well, the good news is, while there's a lot of chatter and conversation about that issue over the last year or so. With hindsight, in retrospect, it looks like a pretty good decision. So, the rates of return on that cash are going up. And we are deploying it, as we talked about in terms of buying equities and repurchas... | intermediate | [
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8f289a725360803087e3a4dbc135d5a6 | Yeah. I guess $2 billion of short-term investments, right? Could that be $1.5 billion and $600 million of corporates where you could earn 5%, 6% on pretty short duration? Like are you thinking about that? Or we're getting 4%, 4.5% on short term and that's OK. | Yeah. It's not awful, especially compared to what it had. Yeah, John, I can recall a conversation with you many, many years ago where you made the comment about Markel that they may not always do what you want them to do, but they will always do what they say they will do. So, you and I are in agreement, and we might p... | fully_evasive | [
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006cdd2bb4349a219380ff3f2e830e9a | Your answer is very clear. Thank you. The other point on investment income and sometimes on these calls, we get an interesting lecture on account. And I would say that -- and I like your reaction to this. I think your net investment income is actually doing better than you suggested. If I read the Q correctly, the $108... | Yeah, I think it's actually more than that. So the equity method investing. And believe me, that's one of those that starts around here with -- I used to be an accountant, and those conversations -- so yes, both -- so for instance, there was one investment that we made probably 10 or 12 years ago. And I cannot recall w... | direct | [
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9c15b1eb91ee24a8d9ef9312eb44d489 | And to add insult to injury on the Hagerty piece, it's worth about $0.5 billion more than what's on the financial statements, right? | That is correct. Yeah, a point John, so call it $0.5 billion. The only thing we've ever recognized is our losses. | direct | [
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1b829849a595c68d435b87c45940ed84 | Right. OK. And then, Tom, final question for you. On the venture side, if I look at the products, I take the products' revenue and subtract the expenses, it's about a 1% margin, which is, I'm sure, not reflecting a reality. Could you talk about anything what went on there in the third quarter? Is there anything unusual... | Yeah. I don't know. I know one of the things that would be going on in terms of the EBITDA profitability of the book and the set of businesses is to the extent that we have distribution businesses, those are high volume, low margin, but a wonderful return on capital. And the mix is skewing a bit that way at the moment.... | intermediate | [
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e0385465f70d1e3ce65cd30c530b8f27 | OK. Great. And then, Richie, for you. Typically, ILS has had a big fourth quarter. That's been their best quarter for profitability, I guess as things get trued up from the investment year. Do you expect that to happen again this year? Or with the hurricane is that off the table? | I guess I'd have to say, John, I don't know. The fourth quarter is usually when you look hard at the side pockets and see if they can be released and that releases trapped fees. I don't know where that will stand this year just simply because of -- like you say, Ian, I think there's going to be quite a bit of focus on ... | fully_evasive | [
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116c4ae01d627fbc178badec0f90e80e | I wanted to just to start with -- maybe you talked about, there's obviously still some savings to come on the interest expense side of the equation, but you also managed the balance sheet that aided the margin in the fourth quarter. Can we just talk for a second about the expectations for loan growth in 2021? And then ... | Yes. I mean, on the loan side, what we expect to do is, like many other institutions out there, we have quite a bit of excess liquidity still on the balance sheet, a lot of cash. And that will allow us to really grow the loan portfolio without necessarily growing the balance sheet. So we continue to deploy. As you've s... | direct | [
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c3b49ea21905cf4fab43aa37971f5546 | Okay. That's helpful. I mean, it looks to me like the margin can get to kind of a 2.25 run rate at some point this year. Does that seem fair to you guys? | Yes. That's a good forecast, Brett. | direct | [
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326cb5cba52c43f93c9b17124d402955 | Okay. And then the other thing I wanted to just touch on was expectations for expenses. I know you're going to have somewhat of a reset in the first quarter. Can you just talk about the expense bill this year, which you might be investing in? How we should think about managing the efficiency ratio? | Yes. I mean, on the personnel side, you're going to see an increase in compensate. Here if you look at year-over-year forecast for annual compensation cost, you're going to see an increase there just simply because of the investments we've made in the small business unit. We've brought on a lot of talent there over the... | intermediate | [
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10fe42748bd4f87d38def91a2955ff38 | Okay. That's helpful. And then if I -- I want to make sure I heard the number correctly. I thought I heard you say the ROI you're expecting was at 95 to 105? | Yes, 95 to 1. We'll probably be, like I said, first quarter, we'll have probably some of the expense resets that you normally see a lot of them on the salary and the comp side of things with employee benefit resets, merit increases that type of thing. So first quarter maybe a little bit lighter, but certainly as we get... | direct | [
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326702e3b7e16ddfa1856dc1f71f7733 | I was hoping to start on credit. I got on kind of late. I apologize. But we're still looking for any other details on that single-tenant relationship that went over to where you allocated that specific reserve in the quarter, and just any other thoughts on just the provision outlook as we enter 2021? | Technically it was not a new relationship, Nate. It's the one that we had put reserves against back in the early part of last year at couple of ShopKo Stores that had closed. We have a personal guarantee and we validated that the owner of the properties is more than able to cover that personal guarantee on the loans. S... | direct | [
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ca3f1b2319a060efd470438cd162ddeb | Okay. Great. Very helpful. And then just switching over to fees, I think the NDAs forecasting volumes to be down 20%, 22% in 2021. Any expectations just in terms of, you guys need you can kind of outperform that level or just generally how you're thinking about that line entering 2021? | Yes. I think when we look at the forecast for this year, obviously, we did $23 million plus of mortgage revenue this year. In our forecast and some of the numbers we provided earlier on ROA outlooks and stuff, we are certainly not forecasting that. In fact, we have our cut, we're cutting it by a third in our forecast t... | intermediate | [
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fd1f03551a7472fd6602c72dd0609e22 | Got it. That's helpful. Makes sense. And if I could just ask one more housekeeping question on the tax rate going forward. Is the 4Q level a good run rate to use going forward? | It is probably a little bit inflated just when you think about, we had record pre-tax earnings and record revenue and taxes in the first part of the year were pretty light. So there was a little bit of catch up there this quarter. I think the run rate going forward is probably a high teen number, is probably the right ... | direct | [
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6c3398747b2688e30fb08f8e80df6006 | David, in your prepared comments, you mentioned that you continue to identify and capitalized on opportunities last year. And I would point out SBA and PPP were two of those. I'm curious how you're thinking about particularly on the identification of opportunities and what sort of other things you might be pursuing thi... | George, we continue to look at opportunities. Obviously, there's a lot of verticals we're not in, in kind of specialty finance lending side of things. We're chatting with a group in California at the current time about potentially another vertical. So we're actively looking and tell all you guys, have you got somebody ... | direct | [
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7317efe5464ce883874ca61cfbee687d | So let me ask the same question in a different way. I now give you good credit for running the bank on a very conservative basis last year given the pandemic and economic challenges. But with things starting to prove, I think what I'm hearing from you is a willingness to potentially hit the accelerator, just hitting th... | That's a fair way to summarize it. Yes. | direct | [
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45180cf36a8fc526f0aaf9b240fa21f1 | Regarding the deposit portfolio, when you look at other, like digital challenger banks, many of them offer checking and high yield savings accounts as opposed to CDs. I was just wondering if there is any opportunity or any strategic plans to accelerate the remix of the deposit portfolio toward more of that makeup. | That's kind of taken place through the course of 2020. I don't know whether you caught it about a month ago, the Newsweek magazine rated us as the Best Small Business Checking Account in America. We put on a concentrated effort to bring in money market in small business checking accounts. Consumer checking accounts, we... | direct | [
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ca06446f477c128f237435793acbfa8e | Thanks for that color. And you guys mentioned $14 million to $15 million number for SBA gain-on-sale in 2021, but can you just provide some color on your long-term growth expectations for that business line, say two, three years? | At the current time, I was asked the same question by one of the employees on a meet the CEO call yesterday afternoon. I don't think we really have a cap on the small business opportunity. As Ken and I have stated in previous calls, as the SBA comes onboard, we have the option of selling the insured piece, which genera... | direct | [
"direct",
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] | A |
fe0448b384fe8d5f043355e873bf2b4c | Firstly, with the NDA filing for IV Korsuva accepted in February, when do you expect to know whether the drug is granted priority review? And secondly, are you able to provide an update on progress made by Vifor on TDAPA reimbursement discussions? And does the fact that there are numerous renal drugs seeking to that in... | Okay. Hi, Avatar. Thanks for that. Yes. So on the first question on the NDA. So we had confirmation from the FDA this week electronically that the NDA was accepted and filed, but within that confirmation for filing the FDA also indicated that the official filing letter was still in process. So that was in process. We h... | intermediate | [
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953c4b4e260212efff19576393604efa | And does the sort of desire for many companies to be included into that look sort of complicate those discussions or timelines? | Well, I don't think so. The way the legislation was defined was to encourage innovation for hemodialysis patients and if those companies' compounds meet those criteria for an innovative compound for the treatment of hemodialysis patients, then they would qualify for TDAPA. | direct | [
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4fd7d3bf1b0de2e875ed32a53b2e1f9c | So I have two questions. The first one is, if you could speak a little bit about the dosing decisions in the CKD, AD and neuropathic pain studies? And whether this corresponds any differences in disease severity? So specifically, we're interested in what led to your decision to choose 2 milligrams versus 1 milligram tw... | Yeah. Thanks, Brian. The dosing question is actually really related to PK and availability of the drug. So for the CKD studies, oral studies, as you know, KORSUVA is eliminated almost entirely via the kidney.
And so, we looked at the PK exposures, and specifically Stage 3 to 5 CKD patients to define what tablet streng... | direct | [
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5472b81330fed266f12f257e44be0298 | Yeah, I guess, they're just kind of curious to get your thoughts, Amgen's update on Parsabiv kind coming out of the TDAPA space guiding to, I think, a 40% or 50% year-over-year decline in revenue. Is this how investors should be thinking about sort of drugs coming out of this TDAPA space, where there's maybe a better p... | Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, Jason. I think the first thing to see right up front that you're well aware of Jason, that Parsabiv was an entirely different class here, and directed at an entirely different issue associated with dialysis patients, for which there are existing alternatives already out there, and including [Indec... | intermediate | [
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] | B |
7476070ce19f13babc5797f206fdabbf | I was wondering if you could detail there the -- where Oral KORSUVA or atopic dermatitis, where do you see that fitting into the current treatment paradigm? And then, as a follow up for the upcoming Phase II readout, is it fair to think about comparisons to some of the Phase II data from the oral JAK in terms of itch N... | Great. Thanks, Joe, and congrats on the new position at Needham. Yeah, so when we think about atopic dermatitis, of course, provided this is the defining symptom for that disorder. And that level of pruritus, high level of pruritus occurs really regardless of the degree of pathophysiology there. So we can recruit and h... | intermediate | [
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644f5378a5757a86f4b3a67ec1c4b6fc | Yeah, thanks. In terms of the Phase III design, I'm hesitant to go too far into that. As you know, we haven't yet had an end of Phase II. And we're awaiting our readout from our dose ranging trial. We have started to think about that and prepare for that.
And we do see that as a normal Phase III program for a chronic ... | And if anyone did take systemic risk there, they would be dropped from the efficacy calculation for that trial. So that is going to be a pure trial with no co-medications there for the patient. | direct | [
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1b1d9d718e5e67bca9d065d610032cd5 | Hi, thanks for taking my questions and for all the details on the clinical development. I just have a quick question. And maybe you may not be able to answer this. But what is your sense of vaccine uptake among trial center employees, personnel and maybe prospective of Oral KORSUVA trial patients or even currently enro... | Thanks, Ben. I think you're right, on your assumption that I'm not sure I can answer that question for you. I am not even sure we've looked at that particular metric in our clinical trials. So I really don't know what the vaccine uptake is at this point in our trials. It may be something we learn at the end of the day ... | fully_evasive | [
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6c48c2df374c9ca763192da6858a05fd | Looking forward to commercialization, what level of visibility will we have on the underlying IV KORSUVA sales, both U.S. and ex-U.S.? I understand that we're going to be seeing profit share, revenue reported in the top-line. I'm just wondering if there's going to be other confirmatory data available. | Sure. Thanks, Ben. So as Vifor will be recognizing the top-line revenue on their side, so net sales will be recorded on their books. So there'll be visibility on that end. And correspondingly, based off the profit share that we receive back, that will be recognized as revenue on our end. So there'll be visibility into ... | direct | [
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fa6246d8abbf0a52f64554498f72b570 | Puerto Rico's margins are back to almost 50%. And [Indecipherable] in the past that sort of the, the leading up benchmark there. How much upside opportunity is there at Chile in Cable & Wireless, and how much of the operational benefits you've been putting in place that we've seen thus far. And secondly, you mentioned ... | Thank you, James. Good morning. And so the first question on the operations, we are quite focused on operational efficiency, but structurally, the different market, they're just different. In the Cable & Wireless, you have numerous islands that somewhat fragmented, so I doubt if I, you know, be straight up, but I doubt... | intermediate | [
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eeba1819c9bd7a7f60daf138f59e6320 | One of your operations have been more than satisfactory, and I'm sure you're surprised about where your stock price is. I mean, clearly, it's a function of the emerging market macro and all that. You don't have an authorization in place for buybacks unlike your predecessor company. Given where your stock price is, is t... | Sure. The first question on the current leases, yes, we certainly do think it's tremendously undervalued, but it's kind of self-serving [Phonetic] to say that, but we know our LRP, we know plan, and we see the upside coming [Indecipherable]. As to the buybacks, we do not have a board authorized buyback plan at this poi... | direct | [
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] | A |
b1259f87748b8b240e24ad374e7ea739 | Balan, in Panama, could you update us on the consumer broadband, competitive dynamic and your go-to-market strategy there? | Thanks, Kevin. In Panama -- Panama a tale of two [Phonetic] stories, the fixed network and a mobile network. In our fixed network, we are an attack in the market. In the mobile network, we are the incumbent. In lot of cases, we carry the highest ARPUs, and as you know, and I've talked about this before as well, it's a ... | direct | [
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8c99e9ef868e0f56f716ce63d1fdee43 | So just on the updated guidance. The roughly $25 million reduction to your full year EBITDA guidance seems to be a 100% Murray related. So is there any Foresight impact from -- baked into that guidance change? And also, are they -- has Foresight continued to pay its take-or-pay? | We have and you're correct the updated guidance reflects substantially the Murray situation. | intermediate | [
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b631401be5168e82c6f71fe509e540d8 | Okay. And then -- so I guess, big picture question. As we try to think about 2020, you've got, obviously, the impact of Murray, potentially some additional impact if Foresight goes down a similar path. And then I think on the coke side, hopefully, you'll have some acceleration or some improvement at Indiana Harbor. Any... | Matt it's premature really for us to be providing any kind of guidance for 2020. We will do that when we announce our fourth quarter results. The comments you make are appropriate. We've continued to experience excellent results from the rebuild ovens at the Harbor works. We expect to complete that rebuild project here... | fully_evasive | [
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3ac0ea653a29915ba1cda7b0462981cf | Okay. And then on capital allocation, thanks for the detail on that. I guess just as I think about priorities, from a debt perspective, you've said that you'll maintain -- you've achieved and you'll look to maintain or even improve that 3 times gross leverage. Based on the $240 million to $250 million of EBITDA guidanc... | Matt, it's good question. It has been a priority of our company to get to this 3 times and perhaps below and it remains so. So having appropriate level of debt for our company is a priority, has been a priority and will remain a priority. Your point about if our EBITDA were to be 250 next year, that's your number not m... | intermediate | [
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6bd03e16d73052704937e17efcea2637 | Yes. Okay. One last one for me just on the coke side. Obviously, there's questions out there around some of the more near-term contract maturities. I think you've got some coming up with Arcelor sooner than later. Any -- I mean, are those conversations that you're having currently? Any high-level insight as to when we ... | The maturities you refer to are at the end of 2020. And as you might well expect we've begun discussions with our customer and beyond that we can't comment. | intermediate | [
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0b2553811c9f344fbfdb24260ec78756 | Hey guys, was -- just for housekeeping purposes, can you give us the effect of currency on the Brazil Coke segment? | It's very nominal. And so I think it -- I think on an annual basis, it's less than a couple of hundred thousand dollar.
Michael G. Rippey -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Completely immaterial.
Fay West -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes. | direct | [
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c8f0f10c6aec1b640433b61c3cf6c374 | Okay, great. Thank you. And then on the debt reduction front following on Matt's question it kind of -- we're looking at a 2020 where Murray and Foresight are meaningfully less to your results based on potentially new contract struck as a result of restructuring. Do you think of 3.0 times, as still the bogey with meani... | Three times is the target has been and will be. | intermediate | [
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fc985888c632cb78056156a305150bc0 | Okay, great. And then obviously good -- you did a good amount of bond repurchase in the quarter [Indecipherable] with bonds and the low to mid 80s at this point, is that something you'd expect to accelerate or continue? | We'll look to maintain the leverage ratio of three times in the most cost effective manner available to us. | intermediate | [
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b5916540bfbfb383ac911af6d05d23f3 | Okay, great. And then just trying to triangulate cash flow for 2020 although it's still early. Based on your '19 capex guidance and we kind of exclude Indiana Harbor and some gas sharing is 65 to 70, the way you see kind of a base sort of maintenance capex level for SunCoke? | I think that's the right number over a period of time. So $65 million to $75 million ongoing maintenance capex. You may have depending on specific projects, a year where you higher and a year where you're lower. We will be giving kind of full some guidance on both EBITDA as well as capex in January, February timeframe ... | direct | [
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17ce512b75644922d37b9fa3c2a529c1 | Hi. So the implied EBITDA guidance for Q4 in the logistics business, I believe is around $10 million with that be kind of a combination of FELP and then the river terminals, or am I missing something there? | Yes, that's all in. So our CMT guidance on a full-year basis is what we're estimating between $31 million and $33 million on a full-year. So guidance for CMT is in the fourth quarter is between $5 million and $7 million.
Lucas Pipes -- B Riley -- Analyst
And so, --.
Fay West -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financ... | intermediate | [
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c9cd799a21e1e19b5662b6f891b7e250 | It's very helpful. Thank you. And in terms of FELP, do you have receivables balance? | So FELP has been shipping tons through the facility all year. As we stand today, they're continuing to move product here in the fourth quarter and they are current on their receivables. | intermediate | [
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19b91ee4cf8f34dd7b2a6dba3abd427e | Very helpful, thank you for that. And then just kind of longer term thinking about CMT, Murray made some comments about the economics of exports in their filing. How do you think about CMT kind of beyond the current volatility, where is its place in the Gulf, where do you see market rates, any sort of color, comments o... | CMT is very low cost facility in a very highly automated, it's unique in many ways, with its ability to receive rail very far down the river as well as its large capabilities. So the asset itself, we believe is a low cost provider down on in the region. What you alluded to Lucas, I think is the challenging conditions t... | intermediate | [
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b84611ad3e6c302384a28efa4571f394 | How easily could this capacity allocated toward other commodities? | Well, that's the challenge obviously that we face today. Over the past few years, we've been incrementally building our business down there. That's in the presence of 10 million tons of contract to take-or-pay business for the coal customers. Now with the filing of Murray, we have a substantial ability to go out into t... | direct | [
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3a679676e9e175dfc38680a0a16ef158 | That's, that's very helpful. Thank you, Mike, for that commentary. And then just following up on some of the earlier comments regarding debt repurchases, leverage ratios, share buyback obviously all connected. Could you maybe describe opportunistic and a little bit more detail, do you have a certain, expect -- do you h... | We can't comment on that point Lucas. Clearly, the Board authorized a new program with the expectation that we would complete the existing program. So through November, we've given the exact numbers of repurchase that we've done. I believe the number and somebody can help me if I screw it up is $23 million of repurchas... | intermediate | [
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e340e4ef770456e3ecb3b01bace18097 | Hey, sorry for the follow-up. I appreciate the color on the share repurchases through November 1, have you repurchased any bonds through November 1 as well? | What we disclosed is what we've purchased. | fully_evasive | [
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c68360248d23971bb71910deb58293b3 | Maybe just starting off with the application. Can -- you mentioned that it will be completed by the end of this month. Have there been any sort of further discussions with the regulatory agency on the way to the completion of this application, Adam? Or is it pretty much all in -- ball's in your court at this point? And... | Yes certainly. I'll go through the questions. Thanks for all those, Ren. The -- to start with -- about the application, the FDA was very clear. We had a very good pre-NDA meeting, and it was very clear to us what was required of us. They -- there was a great deal of clarity during that meeting. They specifically wanted... | intermediate | [
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ba4355c3771b3ab09f85e1e4c002d44d | I guess just leaving -- one last question for me regarding GvHD. You mentioned updated data later this year. Is it fair to assume by ASH of this year? Is that how we should be thinking about it? And then maybe related to that, how does -- like we see how pacritinib threads the needle in MF, but there's -- the landscape... | Well, as I said in the opening remarks, I -- we're very interested in the graft-versus-host data. The publication for that data is going to come out very shortly. And I think it's an exciting opportunity for us to expand the use and potentially expand the label of pacritinib. The data -- the study is being conducted by... | intermediate | [
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569d345cb42f1a7cb56afbbfe5f6d00c | You had mentioned labeling. I'm just wondering whatever is appropriate that can be discussed at this point given where you are about your thoughts on labeling. I know in the past, this was discussed as a way of addressing past safety concerns. Just want to make sure we have your latest thoughts on that. | Yes. Thank you, Chad. It's nice to speak to you again. The labeling, we spent an awful lot of time in the labeling, and we've gone through the safety data, the entire data safety -- data set include, primarily though, the data from the less than 50,000 population, which is what the FDA is most interested in. And we thi... | direct | [
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e84db69e87915c4fe00c45545acea466 | We've touched base on this before, but just wondering here on the eve of filing with FDA, if you've had any further thoughts on just general EU strategy? | Well, the EU has indicated previously that they would like the Pacifica Phase 3 trial for completion -- to be complete before we submit. We're continuing to review our position on that. And obviously, with the U.K. breaking away from Europe, the U.K. is now a separate entity. The focus -- to be honest with you, given t... | intermediate | [
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5d7c12120b4aac09e9c91b58abbee93f | And then just -- and I'd like to get your thoughts here on cash position obviously, in the 2Q is not super enviable. But if -- just looking back at my notes from the last quarter that, that runway appears to have shortened. Just wondering if there's a particular reason for that? And anything you can say about the optio... | Yeah. We're not going to comment on that today except for the numbers that David has already presented, Chad. But thank you for your question.
David Kirske -- Chief Financial Officer
And just one point, Chad, in terms of our accelerating costs, that's associated with commercialization as we build on that, that infras... | fully_evasive | [
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c336e3a8a59d3e8e7e3f4ecd39e69eae | On the PRE-VENT study, Adam, I think you had increased the interim patient group up to 200 patients. Is that still the right number we should be thinking about? | Yes. That's correct, Thomas. | direct | [
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c5048f89770232b1031dc8def3974293 | And then could you remind us -- with the study going on in GvHD, what your options are? Do you have full access to all the data that, that's being generated by the UFM and Moffitt team? Or can you just remind us what your relationship is with that team doing that research? | It's a good relationship. We do have access -- well, we don't have -- currently , we don't have access on the Phase 2, but we will be -- when the data is mature, we will be able to look at it. That's in the agreement with the Moffitt and Minnesota who are good partners here. They want to move this forward as much as we... | direct | [
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c53dc313aabb34d8625baec788baabd0 | And then just a couple on the run-up to potential launch here by the year-end. As we're thinking about spending, what's your trigger for kind of mass hiring of sales reps and kind of junior marketing folks that I'm sure there's going to be a bolus of people coming into the company. Is that going to be once you have an ... | The bulk of the hiring is after we have acceptance for higher. I'll let Bruce comment on that briefly.
Bruce Seeley -- Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. Thomas, you're right. The gate is predominantly the validation of the filing, as Adam mentioned, at the end of May. And then as far as the sales force is concerned, we'r... | direct | [
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b1a1c27c66655d30462d7a2344d1c4fb | And just on that, have you guys settled on a final number of sales reps that you need? I don't know if you've completed that exercise with ZS or whoever you're using? | No, we have not finalized that. It's in process now. | direct | [
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4867451b8726b4c15659374704e32ede | And then just one final one for me. With respect to drug supply, where -- how do we stand with that? | Manufacturing has always been a very well established, a very strong component of the company. We had plenty of drug product actually, who we manufactured some years ago. And we have no concerns about the manufacturing. There will be -- we have plenty of drug supply patients within the first year. And then -- and as th... | direct | [
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7618b04a06713c5080b1d0351b19339e | Couple of questions, first, with respect to your large data center customer within any CIS, can you talk about how you expect that revenue to ramp up during fiscal '22 and what you think the overall potential book of business could look like on an annual basis for that customer compared to prior peak levels. | Yeah, good morning, Matt. Good question. So we've been on, as you know, the last few quarters have unfortunately been year-over-year decline than we've been entering a period here where in the quarter, we had very little in the way of actual sales to the customer. And Q4 as well will have very little in the way of sale... | intermediate | [
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07355cd56b476456153f5055e491194d | Got it. And then just as a follow-up, can you talk about what you anticipate the impact will be as it pertains to steel prices moving higher as well as you mentioned some sort of tariff action, maybe if you could provide a little bit more detail on that. But if you could sort of parse that out and be a little bit more ... | Yeah, yeah, for sure. So two things as we think about the second half of the year and I'll try to quantify it for you. One, as we've seen recently arrived in raw material prices that you referenced, we estimate for the second half versus first half that those metal prices will be $4 million to $5 million net cost incre... | direct | [
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861f1190ae02e4a22c2585824cfd98ee | So can we first start with the auto sale that was announced. Can you give us just kind of a full view on what are the avoided cash costs that are part of the deal in total, just to kind of, was it to put the true value of what you're receiving for this division? | Yes, Mike. So a couple of things that as we know has made it more of a complex story since the day one. We know in a part of our automotive exit strategy that this business is down a low EBITDA business of 4% or 5% type in total margin business and very high capital spending. We spent an average of $40 million a year j... | intermediate | [
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9aacac222d02acdf44092b5bb6496efb | Yeah. And is that plus the pension that you also discussed? | Yeah. So, yeah. You know, part of that came with, I mentioned it's about $15 million of pension and then on top of that I mentioned, all along we've always talked about since we had first announced this, if we don't feel that engine the amount of potential social costs and social liabilities that could come our way are... | direct | [
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4d054393a02e84e152a797b08f6b694a | Okay. Can you also just maybe give us the broad outline of was it a go-forward capex for Modine, and in the next few quarters prior to the oil sale closing, will that area have any capex associated with it in the very near terms. | Yeah, so good question. We mentioned that balance in the year for Modine, two things where our guidance. Our outlook is based on the assumption that we still have the liquid-cooled automotive business and the air-cooled even though we're looking at alternatives there. And so earnings and cash flow, I will assume that t... | direct | [
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07782071dc9ea7ba248bbfed79fb9760 | And does that 50 run rate include or exclude the liquid part that's still left to sell? | Yeah. The air side, we anticipate very little future capital spending. Basically the majority of that volume has run out of one plan that fully capitalized. So it's been a material amount of capital spending tied to air-cooled. | fully_evasive | [
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b1c8c3c88194fb36db10ecbd1e81f709 | Okay. I also wanted to turn to some of the Building HVAC business, you had mentioned some good heating business in your slides and also --. I was curious whether the heating business, technically they do with outdoor heating or areas for outdoor dining or anything. If you got any kind of positive orders or sales from p... | Yes. We've seen a lot of those opportunities. We don't make a product that's the standard standing heating unit that you would think of. We do make some infrared products that you see hanging often as you enter a hotel or something. We have seen a nice increase in the heating market on our side as well. But we think th... | direct | [
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] | A |
2cd97b54cfb656ad96c879e1a31856ca | Got it. And also will you give us kind of one pin point number for the quarter. Obviously, it was a great performance on EBITDA level. I'm just kind of curious if you give us some sense of how much of that in total would you attribute to some temporary stuff going on around COVID. | Yes. That's a good question. I would say when we look at the quarter there was about $11 million or so of benefit between cost of goods and SG&A. That I would classify as temporary in nature, there are things -- everything from salaries to short work weeks and furloughs. So I view it, I call it normalized EBITDA margin... | direct | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | A |
b714a70831a0cd893c7a9aa530f3d071 | Okay. Thanks for that Mike. Maybe I could just throw one last one in there and that is the question on the EV outlook. Can you give us a little bit of sense as to what your engineers are kind of working on in the EV world. Are some of these miles coming faster than expected in the second half of '21, somewhere in '22 a... | Yes. The answer is probably two fold. On the commercial vehicle side, I can tell you that Modine continues to have a seat at the table with all of those discussions in development work. There is a lot of request for development time and resources to work on electrification projects on truck. There is some concern we ha... | direct | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | A |
588bee53716934b4bf10b82470268831 | I just wanted to ask we'd a couple of questions around it, but there is such a focus on air quality currently given the health crisis, but this may catalyse as longer term thinking about the need to have cleaner indoor air as you're looking at your HVAC segment, you know it's not your biggest revenue source but it's a ... | Yes, great. I appreciate the question. For Modine, right now ventilation is about 4% or 5% sales of the company. And you're right, it historically hasn't gotten as much attention obviously as the vehicular side, I can tell you in the last -- you know, starting with the announcement to exit auto but even ramping up the ... | direct | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | A |
46db7602d347c18eb8a8d3983dc58b38 | In your prepared remarks, you did mention that in June you put more contract dollars on the books for the rest of 2020 than you did last June in 2019 for the rest of the 2019 year. I'm just wondering if you could comment on the pacing of that between Q3 and Q4 in 2020? | Good question. I think the best way to answer it is to repeat that our pacings are showing that sequentially we're getting a little stronger every month. So that would indicate that Q4 is the beneficiary of a lot of that contracts. But anecdotally, our customers are still a little skittish, they're buying a little shor... | direct | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | A |
1a83e8c5fd724c515879cd70a524e77d | Can you talk a little bit about pricing versus occupancy trends, and perhaps, how this disruption compares to the Great Recession? | Good question. So we think -- and you know the script isn't 100% written yet. We believe we're going to be able to hold on to pricing a little better than we did during the Great Recession. Pricing was very, very, very difficult to hold on to in '08 and '09. Now that said, there is divergence in pricing in our largest ... | intermediate | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | B |
15cafd8e639d5b4b81e8bf47007701c5 | It sounds you're in good shape, I know you guys mentioned some possible M&A. What do you see out there in the current climate? You guys do a lot of tuck-ins. Is there something larger coming down the road, more of the similar room? And then also on capital, how should we think about when digital deployment is expected ... | Yeah. So I'll tackle the first one first. We are beginning to lay in our plans for 2021. And our initial planning is to take care of the sort of backlog of digital that didn't get built this year, push them into next year and also have 2021 be a standard year. So I'm hopeful that in our November call we'll be able to r... | direct | [
"direct",
"intermediate",
"fully_evasive"
] | A |
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