qid stringlengths 13 29 | forecastType stringclasses 2
values | subtype stringclasses 7
values | indicator stringclasses 45
values | transform stringclasses 2
values | target_period stringclasses 43
values | info_cutoff stringdate 1998-11-02 00:00:00 1999-12-31 00:00:00 | forecast_end stringclasses 43
values | answer_release stringclasses 21
values | question stringlengths 88 149 | options listlengths 2 4 | answer_letter stringclasses 4
values | answer_raw stringlengths 2 10 | unit stringclasses 11
values | year int32 2k 2k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R-CPIAUCSL-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | CPIAUCSL | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US CPI Index (1982-84=100)] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 164.70",
"B) 189.40",
"C) 181.17",
"D) 148.23"
] | A | 164.70 | index | 1,999 | |
R-CPIAUCSL-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | CPIAUCSL | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US CPI Index (1982-84=100)] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 161.02",
"B) 170.98",
"C) 166.00",
"D) 157.70"
] | C | 166.00 | index | 1,999 | |
R-CPIAUCSL-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | CPIAUCSL | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US CPI Index (1982-84=100)] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 178.80",
"B) 162.09",
"C) 167.10",
"D) 172.11"
] | C | 167.10 | index | 1,999 | |
R-CPIAUCSL-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | CPIAUCSL | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US CPI Index (1982-84=100)] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 173.45",
"B) 168.40",
"C) 163.35",
"D) 180.19"
] | B | 168.40 | index | 1,999 | |
R-CPILFESL-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | CPILFESL | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Core CPI Index] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 158.04",
"B) 149.26",
"C) 175.60",
"D) 166.82"
] | C | 175.60 | index | 1,999 | |
R-CPILFESL-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | CPILFESL | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Core CPI Index] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 183.56",
"B) 180.03",
"C) 176.50",
"D) 171.21"
] | C | 176.50 | index | 1,999 | |
R-CPILFESL-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | CPILFESL | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Core CPI Index] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 182.62",
"B) 177.30",
"C) 168.44",
"D) 171.98"
] | B | 177.30 | index | 1,999 | |
R-CPILFESL-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | CPILFESL | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Core CPI Index] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 174.83",
"B) 181.97",
"C) 178.40",
"D) 187.32"
] | C | 178.40 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PCEPI-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | PCEPI | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US PCE Price Index] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 67.79",
"B) 71.36",
"C) 78.49",
"D) 60.65"
] | B | 71.36 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PCEPI-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | PCEPI | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US PCE Price Index] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 73.96",
"B) 68.21",
"C) 71.80",
"D) 70.37"
] | C | 71.80 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PCEPI-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | PCEPI | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US PCE Price Index] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 67.10",
"B) 74.31",
"C) 69.98",
"D) 72.15"
] | D | 72.15 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PCEPI-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | PCEPI | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US PCE Price Index] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 71.14",
"B) 74.05",
"C) 76.22",
"D) 72.59"
] | D | 72.59 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PCEPILFE-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | PCEPILFE | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Core PCE Price Index] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 73.16",
"B) 69.50",
"C) 80.47",
"D) 84.13"
] | A | 73.16 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PCEPILFE-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | PCEPILFE | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Core PCE Price Index] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 75.64",
"B) 71.23",
"C) 73.44",
"D) 78.58"
] | C | 73.44 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PCEPILFE-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | PCEPILFE | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Core PCE Price Index] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 73.64",
"B) 69.96",
"C) 71.43",
"D) 75.85"
] | A | 73.64 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PCEPILFE-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | PCEPILFE | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Core PCE Price Index] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 77.74",
"B) 76.26",
"C) 72.55",
"D) 74.03"
] | D | 74.03 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PPIACO-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | PPIACO | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US PPI All Commodities Index] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 103.95",
"B) 110.07",
"C) 122.30",
"D) 116.19"
] | C | 122.30 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PPIACO-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | PPIACO | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US PPI All Commodities Index] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 115.97",
"B) 124.70",
"C) 128.44",
"D) 120.96"
] | B | 124.70 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PPIACO-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | PPIACO | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US PPI All Commodities Index] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 126.90",
"B) 129.44",
"C) 133.25",
"D) 123.09"
] | A | 126.90 | index | 1,999 | |
R-PPIACO-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | PPIACO | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US PPI All Commodities Index] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 130.87",
"B) 125.73",
"C) 123.17",
"D) 128.30"
] | D | 128.30 | index | 1,999 | |
R-DCOILWTICO-level-19990216 | Recurrent | recurrent | DCOILWTICO | level | 1999-02-16 | 1998-12-18 | 1999-02-16 | Forecast the value of [WTI Crude Oil Spot Price] for 1999-02-16. (Information available up to 1998-12-18.) | [
"A) $10.81/bbl",
"B) $11.38/bbl",
"C) $13.09/bbl",
"D) $9.67/bbl"
] | B | $11.38/bbl | usd_per_barrel | 1,999 | |
R-DCOILWTICO-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | DCOILWTICO | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [WTI Crude Oil Spot Price] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) $17.64/bbl",
"B) $18.83/bbl",
"C) $18.44/bbl",
"D) $18.04/bbl"
] | D | $18.04/bbl | usd_per_barrel | 1,999 | |
R-DCOILWTICO-level-19990816 | Recurrent | recurrent | DCOILWTICO | level | 1999-08-16 | 1999-06-17 | 1999-08-16 | Forecast the value of [WTI Crude Oil Spot Price] for 1999-08-16. (Information available up to 1999-06-17.) | [
"A) $21.34/bbl",
"B) $25.08/bbl",
"C) $23.83/bbl",
"D) $20.09/bbl"
] | A | $21.34/bbl | usd_per_barrel | 1,999 | |
R-DCOILWTICO-level-19991115 | Recurrent | recurrent | DCOILWTICO | level | 1999-11-15 | 1999-09-16 | 1999-11-15 | Forecast the value of [WTI Crude Oil Spot Price] for 1999-11-15. (Information available up to 1999-09-16.) | [
"A) $27.04/bbl",
"B) $25.31/bbl",
"C) $23.58/bbl",
"D) $21.86/bbl"
] | B | $25.31/bbl | usd_per_barrel | 1,999 | |
R-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19990216 | Recurrent | recurrent | DCOILBRENTEU | level | 1999-02-16 | 1998-12-18 | 1999-02-16 | Forecast the value of [Brent Crude Oil Spot Price] for 1999-02-16. (Information available up to 1998-12-18.) | [
"A) $9.48/bbl",
"B) $9.98/bbl",
"C) $10.98/bbl",
"D) $11.48/bbl"
] | B | $9.98/bbl | usd_per_barrel | 1,999 | |
R-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | DCOILBRENTEU | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [Brent Crude Oil Spot Price] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) $14.55/bbl",
"B) $14.24/bbl",
"C) $15.18/bbl",
"D) $15.49/bbl"
] | C | $15.18/bbl | usd_per_barrel | 1,999 | |
R-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19990816 | Recurrent | recurrent | DCOILBRENTEU | level | 1999-08-16 | 1999-06-17 | 1999-08-16 | Forecast the value of [Brent Crude Oil Spot Price] for 1999-08-16. (Information available up to 1999-06-17.) | [
"A) $22.96/bbl",
"B) $19.54/bbl",
"C) $17.27/bbl",
"D) $20.68/bbl"
] | D | $20.68/bbl | usd_per_barrel | 1,999 | |
R-DCOILBRENTEU-level-19991115 | Recurrent | recurrent | DCOILBRENTEU | level | 1999-11-15 | 1999-09-16 | 1999-11-15 | Forecast the value of [Brent Crude Oil Spot Price] for 1999-11-15. (Information available up to 1999-09-16.) | [
"A) $25.93/bbl",
"B) $20.30/bbl",
"C) $22.18/bbl",
"D) $29.68/bbl"
] | A | $25.93/bbl | usd_per_barrel | 1,999 | |
R-UNRATE-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | UNRATE | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Unemployment Rate] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 4.84%",
"B) 4.18%",
"C) 4.62%",
"D) 4.40%"
] | D | 4.40% | % | 1,999 | |
R-UNRATE-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | UNRATE | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Unemployment Rate] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 4.20%",
"B) 3.95%",
"C) 4.10%",
"D) 4.30%"
] | A | 4.20% | % | 1,999 | |
R-UNRATE-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | UNRATE | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Unemployment Rate] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 4.33%",
"B) 4.20%",
"C) 3.95%",
"D) 4.07%"
] | B | 4.20% | % | 1,999 | |
R-UNRATE-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | UNRATE | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Unemployment Rate] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 3.98%",
"B) 4.22%",
"C) 3.89%",
"D) 4.10%"
] | D | 4.10% | % | 1,999 | |
R-PAYEMS-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | PAYEMS | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Total Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands of jobs)] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 128,117K",
"B) 115,305K",
"C) 147,335K",
"D) 134,523K"
] | A | 128,117K | thousand_units | 1,999 | |
R-PAYEMS-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | PAYEMS | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Total Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands of jobs)] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 119,796K",
"B) 132,677K",
"C) 124,949K",
"D) 128,813K"
] | D | 128,813K | thousand_units | 1,999 | |
R-PAYEMS-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | PAYEMS | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Total Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands of jobs)] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 136,051K",
"B) 133,459K",
"C) 126,981K",
"D) 129,572K"
] | D | 129,572K | thousand_units | 1,999 | |
R-PAYEMS-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | PAYEMS | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Total Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands of jobs)] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 130,466K",
"B) 123,943K",
"C) 134,380K",
"D) 127,857K"
] | A | 130,466K | thousand_units | 1,999 | |
R-CIVPART-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | CIVPART | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Labor Force Participation Rate] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 57.12%",
"B) 67.20%",
"C) 63.84%",
"D) 60.48%"
] | B | 67.20% | % | 1,999 | |
R-CIVPART-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | CIVPART | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Labor Force Participation Rate] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 69.11%",
"B) 65.09%",
"C) 67.10%",
"D) 62.40%"
] | C | 67.10% | % | 1,999 | |
R-CIVPART-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | CIVPART | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Labor Force Participation Rate] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 62.31%",
"B) 64.99%",
"C) 67.00%",
"D) 69.01%"
] | C | 67.00% | % | 1,999 | |
R-CIVPART-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | CIVPART | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Labor Force Participation Rate] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 67.10%",
"B) 65.09%",
"C) 69.11%",
"D) 63.07%"
] | A | 67.10% | % | 1,999 | |
R-EMRATIO-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | EMRATIO | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Employment-Population Ratio] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 60.99%",
"B) 54.57%",
"C) 64.20%",
"D) 57.78%"
] | C | 64.20% | % | 1,999 | |
R-EMRATIO-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | EMRATIO | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Employment-Population Ratio] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 61.08%",
"B) 64.30%",
"C) 65.59%",
"D) 62.37%"
] | B | 64.30% | % | 1,999 | |
R-EMRATIO-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | EMRATIO | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Employment-Population Ratio] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 65.48%",
"B) 67.41%",
"C) 62.27%",
"D) 64.20%"
] | D | 64.20% | % | 1,999 | |
R-EMRATIO-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | EMRATIO | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Employment-Population Ratio] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 64.40%",
"B) 68.91%",
"C) 62.47%",
"D) 66.33%"
] | A | 64.40% | % | 1,999 | |
R-AHETPI-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | AHETPI | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Average Hourly Earnings] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) $11.97/hr",
"B) $11.30/hr",
"C) $13.30/hr",
"D) $14.63/hr"
] | C | $13.30/hr | usd_per_hour | 1,999 | |
R-AHETPI-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | AHETPI | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Average Hourly Earnings] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) $13.02/hr",
"B) $13.42/hr",
"C) $13.82/hr",
"D) $12.48/hr"
] | B | $13.42/hr | usd_per_hour | 1,999 | |
R-AHETPI-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | AHETPI | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Average Hourly Earnings] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) $13.94/hr",
"B) $12.72/hr",
"C) $13.12/hr",
"D) $13.53/hr"
] | D | $13.53/hr | usd_per_hour | 1,999 | |
R-AHETPI-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | AHETPI | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Average Hourly Earnings] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) $12.70/hr",
"B) $13.66/hr",
"C) $13.25/hr",
"D) $14.07/hr"
] | B | $13.66/hr | usd_per_hour | 1,999 | |
R-ICSA-level-19990213 | Recurrent | recurrent | ICSA | level | 1999-02-13 | 1998-12-15 | 1999-02-13 | Forecast the value of [US Initial Jobless Claims (Number)] for 1999-02-13. (Information available up to 1998-12-15.) | [
"A) 343,200",
"B) 312,000",
"C) 280,800",
"D) 265,200"
] | B | 312,000 | count | 1,999 | |
R-ICSA-level-19990515 | Recurrent | recurrent | ICSA | level | 1999-05-15 | 1999-03-16 | 1999-05-15 | Forecast the value of [US Initial Jobless Claims (Number)] for 1999-05-15. (Information available up to 1999-03-16.) | [
"A) 327,135",
"B) 301,000",
"C) 318,423",
"D) 292,288"
] | B | 301,000 | count | 1,999 | |
R-ICSA-level-19990814 | Recurrent | recurrent | ICSA | level | 1999-08-14 | 1999-06-15 | 1999-08-14 | Forecast the value of [US Initial Jobless Claims (Number)] for 1999-08-14. (Information available up to 1999-06-15.) | [
"A) 299,038",
"B) 284,962",
"C) 270,885",
"D) 292,000"
] | D | 292,000 | count | 1,999 | |
R-ICSA-level-19991113 | Recurrent | recurrent | ICSA | level | 1999-11-13 | 1999-09-14 | 1999-11-13 | Forecast the value of [US Initial Jobless Claims (Number)] for 1999-11-13. (Information available up to 1999-09-14.) | [
"A) 288,049",
"B) 302,147",
"C) 259,853",
"D) 281,000"
] | D | 281,000 | count | 1,999 | |
R-GDPC1-level-19990101 | Recurrent | recurrent | GDPC1 | level | Q1 1999 | 1998-11-02 | Q1 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2017 USD)] for Q1 1999. (Information available up to 1998-11-02.) | [
"A) $15,313B",
"B) $13,316B",
"C) $12,650B",
"D) $14,647B"
] | B | $13,316B | usd_billion | 1,999 | |
R-GDPC1-level-19990401 | Recurrent | recurrent | GDPC1 | level | Q2 1999 | 1999-01-31 | Q2 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2017 USD)] for Q2 1999. (Information available up to 1999-01-31.) | [
"A) $14,769B",
"B) $15,441B",
"C) $11,413B",
"D) $13,427B"
] | D | $13,427B | usd_billion | 1,999 | |
R-GDPC1-level-19990701 | Recurrent | recurrent | GDPC1 | level | Q3 1999 | 1999-05-02 | Q3 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2017 USD)] for Q3 1999. (Information available up to 1999-05-02.) | [
"A) $14,421B",
"B) $13,197B",
"C) $14,013B",
"D) $13,605B"
] | D | $13,605B | usd_billion | 1,999 | |
R-GDPC1-level-19991001 | Recurrent | recurrent | GDPC1 | level | Q4 1999 | 1999-08-02 | Q4 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2017 USD)] for Q4 1999. (Information available up to 1999-08-02.) | [
"A) $13,413B",
"B) $14,519B",
"C) $13,828B",
"D) $14,105B"
] | C | $13,828B | usd_billion | 1,999 | |
R-GDP-level-19990101 | Recurrent | recurrent | GDP | level | Q1 1999 | 1998-11-02 | Q1 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Nominal GDP (Billions USD)] for Q1 1999. (Information available up to 1998-11-02.) | [
"A) $10,353B",
"B) $9,412B",
"C) $10,823B",
"D) $11,765B"
] | B | $9,412B | usd_billion | 1,999 | |
R-GDP-level-19990401 | Recurrent | recurrent | GDP | level | Q2 1999 | 1999-01-31 | Q2 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Nominal GDP (Billions USD)] for Q2 1999. (Information available up to 1999-01-31.) | [
"A) $10,955B",
"B) $9,526B",
"C) $10,003B",
"D) $10,479B"
] | B | $9,526B | usd_billion | 1,999 | |
R-GDP-level-19990701 | Recurrent | recurrent | GDP | level | Q3 1999 | 1999-05-02 | Q3 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Nominal GDP (Billions USD)] for Q3 1999. (Information available up to 1999-05-02.) | [
"A) $10,171B",
"B) $10,462B",
"C) $20,000B",
"D) $9,687B"
] | D | $9,687B | usd_billion | 1,999 | |
R-GDP-level-19991001 | Recurrent | recurrent | GDP | level | Q4 1999 | 1999-08-02 | Q4 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Nominal GDP (Billions USD)] for Q4 1999. (Information available up to 1999-08-02.) | [
"A) $10,197B",
"B) $10,593B",
"C) $10,395B",
"D) $9,900B"
] | D | $9,900B | usd_billion | 1,999 | |
R-INDPRO-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | INDPRO | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Industrial Production Index] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 79.22",
"B) 74.82",
"C) 96.83",
"D) 88.03"
] | D | 88.03 | index | 1,999 | |
R-INDPRO-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | INDPRO | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Industrial Production Index] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 91.66",
"B) 84.54",
"C) 88.99",
"D) 86.32"
] | C | 88.99 | index | 1,999 | |
R-INDPRO-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | INDPRO | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Industrial Production Index] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 87.10",
"B) 92.49",
"C) 89.79",
"D) 85.30"
] | C | 89.79 | index | 1,999 | |
R-INDPRO-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | INDPRO | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Industrial Production Index] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 89.14",
"B) 86.41",
"C) 93.69",
"D) 90.96"
] | D | 90.96 | index | 1,999 | |
R-TCU-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | TCU | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Capacity Utilization] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 82.19%",
"B) 78.08%",
"C) 86.30%",
"D) 73.97%"
] | A | 82.19% | % | 1,999 | |
R-TCU-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | TCU | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Capacity Utilization] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 78.02%",
"B) 83.77%",
"C) 80.48%",
"D) 82.12%"
] | D | 82.12% | % | 1,999 | |
R-TCU-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | TCU | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Capacity Utilization] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 83.62%",
"B) 80.34%",
"C) 81.98%",
"D) 77.88%"
] | C | 81.98% | % | 1,999 | |
R-TCU-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | TCU | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Capacity Utilization] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 82.20%",
"B) 86.31%",
"C) 83.84%",
"D) 79.73%"
] | A | 82.20% | % | 1,999 | |
R-FEDFUNDS-level-19990201 | Recurrent | recurrent | FEDFUNDS | level | February 1999 | 1998-12-03 | February 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Effective Federal Funds Rate] for February 1999. (Information available up to 1998-12-03.) | [
"A) 4.28%",
"B) 4.05%",
"C) 4.76%",
"D) 5.24%"
] | C | 4.76% | % | 1,999 | |
R-FEDFUNDS-level-19990501 | Recurrent | recurrent | FEDFUNDS | level | May 1999 | 1999-03-02 | May 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Effective Federal Funds Rate] for May 1999. (Information available up to 1999-03-02.) | [
"A) 4.74%",
"B) 4.88%",
"C) 4.98%",
"D) 4.65%"
] | A | 4.74% | % | 1,999 | |
R-FEDFUNDS-level-19990801 | Recurrent | recurrent | FEDFUNDS | level | August 1999 | 1999-06-02 | August 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Effective Federal Funds Rate] for August 1999. (Information available up to 1999-06-02.) | [
"A) 4.72%",
"B) 4.92%",
"C) 5.07%",
"D) 5.22%"
] | C | 5.07% | % | 1,999 | |
R-FEDFUNDS-level-19991101 | Recurrent | recurrent | FEDFUNDS | level | November 1999 | 1999-09-02 | November 1999 | Forecast the value of [US Effective Federal Funds Rate] for November 1999. (Information available up to 1999-09-02.) | [
"A) 5.42%",
"B) 5.90%",
"C) 5.13%",
"D) 5.61%"
] | A | 5.42% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS3MO-level-19990216 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS3MO | level | 1999-02-16 | 1998-12-18 | 1999-02-16 | Forecast the value of [US 3-Month Treasury Yield] for 1999-02-16. (Information available up to 1998-12-18.) | [
"A) 5.24%",
"B) 4.33%",
"C) 4.56%",
"D) 4.79%"
] | C | 4.56% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS3MO-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS3MO | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [US 3-Month Treasury Yield] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) 4.78%",
"B) 4.64%",
"C) 4.87%",
"D) 4.50%"
] | B | 4.64% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS3MO-level-19990816 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS3MO | level | 1999-08-16 | 1999-06-17 | 1999-08-16 | Forecast the value of [US 3-Month Treasury Yield] for 1999-08-16. (Information available up to 1999-06-17.) | [
"A) 5.06%",
"B) 4.84%",
"C) 4.95%",
"D) 4.68%"
] | B | 4.84% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS3MO-level-19991115 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS3MO | level | 1999-11-15 | 1999-09-16 | 1999-11-15 | Forecast the value of [US 3-Month Treasury Yield] for 1999-11-15. (Information available up to 1999-09-16.) | [
"A) 4.89%",
"B) 5.29%",
"C) 5.45%",
"D) 5.05%"
] | B | 5.29% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS2-level-19990216 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS2 | level | 1999-02-16 | 1998-12-18 | 1999-02-16 | Forecast the value of [US 2-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-02-16. (Information available up to 1998-12-18.) | [
"A) 4.93%",
"B) 5.67%",
"C) 5.42%",
"D) 4.44%"
] | A | 4.93% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS2-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS2 | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [US 2-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) 5.41%",
"B) 5.08%",
"C) 5.30%",
"D) 5.19%"
] | C | 5.30% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS2-level-19990816 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS2 | level | 1999-08-16 | 1999-06-17 | 1999-08-16 | Forecast the value of [US 2-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-08-16. (Information available up to 1999-06-17.) | [
"A) 5.75%",
"B) 6.04%",
"C) 6.19%",
"D) 5.31%"
] | A | 5.75% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS2-level-19991115 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS2 | level | 1999-11-15 | 1999-09-16 | 1999-11-15 | Forecast the value of [US 2-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-11-15. (Information available up to 1999-09-16.) | [
"A) 6.35%",
"B) 5.60%",
"C) 5.42%",
"D) 5.79%"
] | D | 5.79% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS5-level-19990216 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS5 | level | 1999-02-16 | 1998-12-18 | 1999-02-16 | Forecast the value of [US 5-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-02-16. (Information available up to 1998-12-18.) | [
"A) 4.46%",
"B) 4.96%",
"C) 5.46%",
"D) 5.70%"
] | B | 4.96% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS5-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS5 | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [US 5-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) 5.09%",
"B) 5.87%",
"C) 5.48%",
"D) 5.22%"
] | C | 5.48% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS5-level-19990816 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS5 | level | 1999-08-16 | 1999-06-17 | 1999-08-16 | Forecast the value of [US 5-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-08-16. (Information available up to 1999-06-17.) | [
"A) 5.34%",
"B) 5.52%",
"C) 5.70%",
"D) 5.88%"
] | D | 5.88% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS5-level-19991115 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS5 | level | 1999-11-15 | 1999-09-16 | 1999-11-15 | Forecast the value of [US 5-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-11-15. (Information available up to 1999-09-16.) | [
"A) 5.22%",
"B) 5.44%",
"C) 5.65%",
"D) 5.87%"
] | D | 5.87% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS10-level-19990216 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS10 | level | 1999-02-16 | 1998-12-18 | 1999-02-16 | Forecast the value of [US 10-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-02-16. (Information available up to 1998-12-18.) | [
"A) 4.28%",
"B) 4.53%",
"C) 5.53%",
"D) 5.03%"
] | D | 5.03% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS10-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS10 | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [US 10-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) 5.50%",
"B) 5.25%",
"C) 5.62%",
"D) 5.38%"
] | C | 5.62% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS10-level-19990816 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS10 | level | 1999-08-16 | 1999-06-17 | 1999-08-16 | Forecast the value of [US 10-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-08-16. (Information available up to 1999-06-17.) | [
"A) 5.80%",
"B) 5.98%",
"C) 6.51%",
"D) 5.63%"
] | B | 5.98% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS10-level-19991115 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS10 | level | 1999-11-15 | 1999-09-16 | 1999-11-15 | Forecast the value of [US 10-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-11-15. (Information available up to 1999-09-16.) | [
"A) 6.37%",
"B) 5.29%",
"C) 5.51%",
"D) 5.94%"
] | D | 5.94% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS30-level-19990216 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS30 | level | 1999-02-16 | 1998-12-18 | 1999-02-16 | Forecast the value of [US 30-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-02-16. (Information available up to 1998-12-18.) | [
"A) 6.15%",
"B) 5.08%",
"C) 5.35%",
"D) 4.55%"
] | C | 5.35% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS30-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS30 | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [US 30-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) 6.39%",
"B) 5.92%",
"C) 5.64%",
"D) 6.20%"
] | B | 5.92% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS30-level-19990816 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS30 | level | 1999-08-16 | 1999-06-17 | 1999-08-16 | Forecast the value of [US 30-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-08-16. (Information available up to 1999-06-17.) | [
"A) 6.37%",
"B) 6.10%",
"C) 6.50%",
"D) 5.83%"
] | B | 6.10% | % | 1,999 | |
R-DGS30-level-19991115 | Recurrent | recurrent | DGS30 | level | 1999-11-15 | 1999-09-16 | 1999-11-15 | Forecast the value of [US 30-Year Treasury Yield] for 1999-11-15. (Information available up to 1999-09-16.) | [
"A) 5.56%",
"B) 6.04%",
"C) 6.36%",
"D) 5.72%"
] | B | 6.04% | % | 1,999 | |
R-T10Y2Y-level-19990216 | Recurrent | recurrent | T10Y2Y | level | 1999-02-16 | 1998-12-18 | 1999-02-16 | Forecast the value of [US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread] for 1999-02-16. (Information available up to 1998-12-18.) | [
"A) +0.10pp",
"B) +0.00pp",
"C) +0.20pp",
"D) -0.05pp"
] | A | +0.10pp | pp | 1,999 | |
R-T10Y2Y-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | T10Y2Y | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) +0.24pp",
"B) +0.17pp",
"C) +0.40pp",
"D) +0.32pp"
] | D | +0.32pp | pp | 1,999 | |
R-T10Y2Y-level-19990816 | Recurrent | recurrent | T10Y2Y | level | 1999-08-16 | 1999-06-17 | 1999-08-16 | Forecast the value of [US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread] for 1999-08-16. (Information available up to 1999-06-17.) | [
"A) +0.23pp",
"B) +0.04pp",
"C) +0.15pp",
"D) +0.35pp"
] | A | +0.23pp | pp | 1,999 | |
R-T10Y2Y-level-19991115 | Recurrent | recurrent | T10Y2Y | level | 1999-11-15 | 1999-09-16 | 1999-11-15 | Forecast the value of [US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread] for 1999-11-15. (Information available up to 1999-09-16.) | [
"A) +0.04pp",
"B) +0.26pp",
"C) +0.15pp",
"D) +0.33pp"
] | C | +0.15pp | pp | 1,999 | |
R-MORTGAGE30US-level-19990212 | Recurrent | recurrent | MORTGAGE30US | level | 1999-02-12 | 1998-12-14 | 1999-02-12 | Forecast the value of [US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate] for 1999-02-12. (Information available up to 1998-12-14.) | [
"A) 7.79%",
"B) 7.45%",
"C) 6.77%",
"D) 7.11%"
] | C | 6.77% | % | 1,999 | |
R-MORTGAGE30US-level-19990514 | Recurrent | recurrent | MORTGAGE30US | level | 1999-05-14 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-05-14 | Forecast the value of [US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate] for 1999-05-14. (Information available up to 1999-03-15.) | [
"A) 7.31%",
"B) 6.89%",
"C) 6.74%",
"D) 7.10%"
] | D | 7.10% | % | 1,999 | |
R-MORTGAGE30US-level-19990813 | Recurrent | recurrent | MORTGAGE30US | level | 1999-08-13 | 1999-06-14 | 1999-08-13 | Forecast the value of [US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate] for 1999-08-13. (Information available up to 1999-06-14.) | [
"A) 8.15%",
"B) 8.67%",
"C) 8.46%",
"D) 7.94%"
] | A | 8.15% | % | 1,999 | |
R-MORTGAGE30US-level-19991112 | Recurrent | recurrent | MORTGAGE30US | level | 1999-11-12 | 1999-09-13 | 1999-11-12 | Forecast the value of [US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate] for 1999-11-12. (Information available up to 1999-09-13.) | [
"A) 7.24%",
"B) 7.67%",
"C) 8.10%",
"D) 7.46%"
] | B | 7.67% | % | 1,999 |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
FinDeepForecast-Historical-US
A historical version of the FinDeepForecast benchmark from OpenFinArena, covering 1999–2026 with ground-truth derived from real FRED time series.
Strictly follows the paper's two-track taxonomy:
- Recurrent — periodic numerical forecasts (CPI/GDP/Treasury/etc. value at a future date)
- Non-Recurrent — binary YES/NO forecasts on specific upcoming scheduled events (FOMC rate decisions, CPI/NFP release surprises, weekly market thresholds)
Highlights
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total questions | 8,437 |
| Recurrent | 6,366 (75.5%) — multiple choice (4 options) |
| Non-Recurrent | 2,071 (24.5%) — binary YES/NO |
| Years covered | 1999–2026 (28 splits) |
| Indicators | 49 US macro/market series from FRED |
| Avg per year | ~300 questions |
Quick Start
from datasets import load_dataset
# Single year
ds = load_dataset("TheFinAI/pre_test", split="2008")
# Filter by forecast type
recurrent_2008 = ds.filter(lambda x: x["forecastType"] == "Recurrent")
non_recurrent_2008 = ds.filter(lambda x: x["forecastType"] == "Non-Recurrent")
Recurrent (paper-aligned periodic forecast)
"Forecast the value of [US CPI YoY Inflation Rate] for June 2010. (Information available up to 2010-04-15.)"
A) 1.45% B) 2.04% C) 2.42% D) 1.85%
- Format: 4-option MCQ with numeric values
- Generated for 49 indicators × 4 quarters/year × {level, yoy_pct, yoy_pp} transforms
info_cutoffset ~60 days before target period
Non-Recurrent (paper-aligned binary YES/NO)
Follows the original paper's format: "Will [specific event] happen by [date]?"
8 templates (all anchored to scheduled events)
| Template | Question pattern | Per year |
|---|---|---|
T1 fomc_cut |
Will FOMC cut rates ≥25bp at [date]? | ~8 |
T2 fomc_hike |
Will FOMC raise rates ≥25bp at [date]? | ~8 |
T3 fomc_hold |
Will FOMC keep rates unchanged at [date]? | ~8 |
T4 cpi_release_threshold |
Will CPI YoY for [month] exceed [threshold]%? | 12 |
T5 nfp_release_threshold |
Will NFP for [month] show change > [threshold]? | 12 |
T6 gdp_release_threshold |
Will GDP YoY for [quarter] exceed [threshold]%? | 4 |
T7 vix_weekly_spike |
Will VIX exceed [threshold] in week ending [date]? | 12 |
T8 nasdaq_weekly_gain |
Will NASDAQ gain more than [X]% in week ending [date]? | 12 |
Non-Recurrent example (real)
"Will the FOMC cut the federal funds target rate by at least 25 basis points at its meeting on 2020-03-15?"
A) YES B) NO
✓ Answer: A (YES) — Fed cut to zero on emergency Sunday meeting
YES/NO balance (across all 2,071 NR questions)
| Subtype | n | YES% | NO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| vix_weekly_spike | 328 | 51% | 49% |
| nasdaq_weekly_gain | 328 | 41% | 59% |
| nfp_release_threshold | 326 | 49% | 51% |
| cpi_release_threshold | 313 | 52% | 48% |
| fomc_cut | 224 | 17% | 83% |
| fomc_hike | 224 | 19% | 81% |
| fomc_hold | 224 | 64% | 36% |
| gdp_release_threshold | 104 | 47% | 53% |
(FOMC imbalance reflects reality: most meetings are "hold" decisions.)
Schema
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
qid |
string | Unique question ID |
forecastType |
string | Recurrent or Non-Recurrent |
subtype |
string | Fine-grained subtype |
indicator |
string | Primary FRED series ID |
transform |
string | level / yoy_pct / yoy_pp (Recurrent), "" (NR) |
target_period |
string | Period asked about |
info_cutoff |
string | YYYY-MM-DD — latest info allowed |
forecast_end |
string | YYYY-MM-DD — last day of horizon |
answer_release |
string | NR only — when truth becomes verifiable |
question |
string | Question text |
options |
list[string] | Length 4 (Recurrent) or 2 (NR) |
answer_letter |
string | A/B/C/D (Recurrent) or A/B (NR) |
answer_raw |
string | Underlying answer value |
unit |
string | %, index, binary, etc. |
year |
int | Convenience field |
Indicators (49 FRED series)
| Category | Examples |
|---|---|
| Inflation (8) | CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, PCEPI, PCEPILFE, PPIACO, PPIFIS, DCOILWTICO, DCOILBRENTEU |
| Labor (6) | UNRATE, PAYEMS, CIVPART, EMRATIO, AHETPI, ICSA |
| Growth (4) | GDPC1, GDP, INDPRO, TCU |
| Rates (8) | FEDFUNDS, DGS3MO, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30, T10Y2Y, MORTGAGE30US |
| Money (4) | M2SL, BOGMBASE, TOTBKCR, CCSA |
| Consumer (5) | UMCSENT, PCE, PSAVERT, RSAFS, DSPI |
| Housing (3) | HOUST, PERMIT, CSUSHPINSA |
| Manufacturing (3) | DGORDER, BOPGSTB, NEWORDER |
| Market (8) | SP500, NASDAQCOM, DJIA, VIXCLS, DTWEXBGS, DEXUSEU, DEXJPUS, DEXCHUS |
Coverage Notes
- 1999 has fewer Recurrent questions (~180) because some indicators
(
PPIFIS,SP500,DJIA,DTWEXBGS) start later than 1999 on FRED. - 2026 is a partial year (data through April/May 2026); contains only questions whose ground truth is verifiable.
- All NR questions tied to FOMC meetings, BLS releases (CPI/NFP), BEA releases (GDP), or weekly market thresholds — all from scheduled/public calendars.
Differences from the Original FinDeepForecast
| Aspect | Original (live, 2025-10 → 2025-12) | This dataset (historical) |
|---|---|---|
| Coverage | 10 weeks | 28 years |
| Markets | 8 (US/UK/CN/HK/JP/SG/DE/FR) | US only |
| Recurrent total | 296 macro + 699 corporate | 6,366 (macro only) |
| Non-Recurrent total | 128 macro + 247 corporate | 2,071 (macro only) |
| Ground truth | Future outcome (live) | Historical realized values |
| Format | Numeric (Rec) + YES/NO (NR) | Same — 4-option MCQ + YES/NO |
This historical version sacrifices the live "no memorization" property of the original benchmark in exchange for reproducible offline evaluation across 28 years.
License
CC-BY-4.0. Underlying FRED data is in the public domain (FRED API terms).
Citation
@article{findeepforecast,
title={FinDeepForecast: A Live Benchmark for Financial Forecasting with LLMs},
author={OpenFinArena},
year={2026},
url={https://openfinarena.com/fin-deep-forecast/}
}
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